Economic and Environmental Modeling Study
By admin | Published:
March 30, 2009
General Description of Work
The Economic and Environmental Modeling Study will apply state-of-the-art economic modeling and other techniques to simulate conditions of tourism development and population growth through time, and identify the impact of this growth on key environmental and quality of life measures for various economic and geographical sectors.
The goal of the process is to identify key factors influencing tourism industry growth, identify unwanted impacts, develop measurable indicators for elements contributing to these impacts, and develop policy and management strategies to eliminate or mitigate the negative impacts. Several scenarios will be tested to represent potential future conditions. The process shall also result in the development of a dynamic general equilibrium model for the State, to enable it to periodically re-analyze the tourism impact. The specific objectives of the Modeling Study are to:
Perform a background review of the relevant literature and data, including the historical condition of natural resources and the nature of the risks facing them, especially those exacerbated by tourism numbers. The review will also include a review and evaluation of various tested methods of approaching sustainable tourism.
Create a model or series of linked models that will analyze the impact of changes in the level and composition of tourism on Hawai`i’s economy, quality of life, infrastructure and environment. Geographic analysis will be conducted at the county level or at key tourism districts across Hawai`i. The analysis will include simulations of the impact on relevant natural resource systems of changes in the level and composition of tourism and tourism growth, and residents and resident growth. These will include impacts on water resources and land use.
Identify and develop measurements for key economic, demographic and environmental factors reflecting the quality of life of residents and the quality of the visitor experience, and provide simulations of the probable impact on these factors resulting from changes in the level and composition of tourism and residents. Factors will include labor supply and demand, demand for the services of natural resources, income distribution, transportation congestion and information obtained from existing visitor and resident satisfaction surveys. The simulations shall address 10-, 20-, and 30-year planning horizons.
Estimate the economic and social costs and benefits of tourism, and associated environmental and infrastructure polices using a dynamic approach. The approach will incorporate population trends and demographic characteristics of Hawai`i residents to capture the potential impacts on the standard of living for a given change in tourism.
Provide linkages from the formal modeling and simulation results to the State Geographical Information System (GIS). This will permit estimations of the potential for tourism development subject to various constraints including available land, land suitability, zoning, infrastructure requirements, and other factors.
Provide an assessment of infrastructure needs and appropriate policy responses to increased pressure from visitors and residents on infrastructure, such as roads and airports; water treatment and sewage; waste management, recycling; fire prevention; park expansion; and maintenance, and public utilities management, utilizing information developed in the Infrastructure Study among other sources.
Identify pressure or trigger points where remedial action shall be contemplated.
Incorporate information on social costs and quality of life issues based on available resident surveys and public input gathered from other phases of this project.
Provide recommendations for other specific policy changes in planning, taxation, and conservation policies. This will include recommendations for conservation measures designed to mitigate degradation and promote improvement of Hawai`i’s ecosystems.
Examine the economic costs and benefits of tourism and make recommendations regarding possible scenarios of future growth of the industry and Hawai`i’s economy. The Modeling Study will integrate the social and scientific systems into a consistent framework to assist with the formation of policy and planning for Hawai`i.
Prepare interim and final drafts of the Modeling Study.
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